The prediction of the development prospect of twin strollers is to investigate and study the factors affecting the supply and demand change of twin strollers market, analyze and predict the development trend of twin strollers, and master the law of the supply and demand change of twin strollers market on the basis of the various information and data obtained from the market investigation of twin strollers, using scientific forecasting techniques and methods. Provide reliable basis for business decision.
In order to improve the scientific level of management and reduce the blindness of decision-making, it is necessary to grasp the relevant dynamics of economic development or future market changes of twin strollers through the development prospect prediction, reduce the future uncertainty, reduce the possible risks of decision-making, so that the decision-making objectives can be successfully realized.
1. Set goals
Clarifying the purpose is the first step to carry out the prediction of the development prospect of twin strollers, because the contents and items of the prediction, the data needed and the methods used will vary with different purposes. Clear forecast objectives, is according to the problems existing in the business activities of the twin stroller enterprise, the development of the forecast project, the development of the forecast plan, budgeting, deployment of forces, organization and implementation, in order to ensure that the twin stroller development prospects of the forecast work in a planned and rhythmic way.
2. Collect information
It is necessary to possess sufficient data to predict the development prospect of twin strollers. With sufficient data, we can provide reliable basis for analysis and judgment for the prediction of development prospect of twin strollers. Under the guidance of the development prospect prediction program for twin strollers, the investigation and collection of relevant data is an important part of the development prospect prediction for twin strollers, and also the basic work of the prediction.
3. Select methods
According to the target of prediction and the applicable conditions of various prediction methods, the appropriate prediction methods are selected. Sometimes multiple forecasting methods can be used to predict the same goal. The accuracy and reliability of prediction will be directly affected by the appropriate selection of prediction methods. The core of the prediction method of the development prospect of twin strollers is to establish a model that describes and summarizes the characteristics and change rules of the research object. Then the prediction results can be obtained by calculating or processing according to the model.
4. Analysis and correction
Analysis and judgment is to make a comprehensive analysis of the data collected by the investigation, and through judgment and reasoning, the perceptual understanding is upgraded to the rational understanding, from the phenomenon of things to the essence of things, so as to predict the future development and change trend of the twin stroller market. On the basis of analysis and evaluation, the original forecast results are usually evaluated and revised according to the latest information.
5. Write reports
The twin stroller prediction report should summarize the main activities of the prediction research, including the prediction target, the prediction object and the analysis conclusion of the related factors, the main information and data, the selection of the prediction method and the establishment of the model, as well as the evaluation, analysis and correction of the prediction conclusion.
Relevant research achievements:
Market Research and Industry Prospects of Twin Strollers in China and the World (2022-2028)
Report of Global and Chinese twin stroller Development Status and market Prospect Analysis (2022-2028)
Report on the current Situation analysis and Development Trend Forecast of China Twin stroller Industry (2023-2029)
To predict the development prospect of twin strollers, we should grasp the four basic elements of prediction:
1. Information.
Information is the representation and reflection of the characteristics and changes of objective things. It exists in all kinds of carriers and is the main work object, work basis and result reflection of twin stroller prediction.
2. Method.
Method refers to the various means used to carry out qualitative and quantitative analysis in the process of forecasting. Forecasting methods can be grouped into different categories according to different criteria. According to the attributes of the twin stroller prediction results, it can be divided into qualitative prediction and quantitative prediction, and according to the different prediction time, it can be divided into long-term prediction, medium-term prediction and short-term prediction. According to the method itself, it can be divided into many categories, the most basic one is model prediction and non-model prediction.
3. Analysis.
Analysis is the activity of thinking research according to relevant theories. After drawing the prediction conclusion according to the prediction method, two aspects of analysis must be carried out: one is to analyze whether the forecast results in theory meet the conditions of economic theory and statistical analysis; The second is to analyze the accuracy of the prediction error in practice and evaluate the reliability of the prediction results.
4. Judgment.
Forecasting should follow certain procedures and steps to order, plan, and collaborate.
There are many ways to predict the development prospect of twin strollers. There are mainly the following:
1. Time series
In the prediction of the development prospect of twin strollers, a series of economic indicators are often encountered according to time changes, such as the annual (quarterly) sales and supply of the products of twin strollers enterprises. These data are called time series. The prediction method based on time series is called time series prediction.
2. Regression
(1) The meaning of “return”.
Regression is used to analyze and study the dependency relationship between a variable (dependent variable) and one or several other variables (independent variable). Its purpose is to estimate or predict the mean value of the dependent variable according to a group of known data values of independent variables. In economic forecasting, people take the forecast object (economic indicator) as the dependent variable, and those closely related to the forecast object as the independent variable. According to the historical and statistical data of the two, the regression model is established and used for prediction after statistical test. There are one variable regression prediction and multiple variable regression prediction. Only one variable linear regression prediction method is discussed here.
(2) Basic conditions of regression analysis.
When a set of known independent variable data is used to estimate and predict the value of a dependent variable, the two variables need to meet the following two conditions:
First, statistical correlation. Statistical correlation is an uncertain functional relationship, that is, a functional relationship in which the value of the dependent variable (predictive variable) is obviously correlated with the value of one or more independent variables, but it is not accurate and unique, and the variables are all random variables. Such correlations are abundant in economic phenomena.
Second, cause and effect. If one or several independent variables, when x changes, affect another variable, y, according to a certain law, but the change of y cannot affect x, that is, the change of x is the cause of the change of y, rather than the opposite, then there is a causal relationship between x and y, and the model reflecting the causal relationship is called a regression model.
3. Qualitative and quantitative
Another classification method of development prospect prediction can be divided into qualitative prediction and quantitative prediction. For enterprise marketing management personnel, they should understand and master the methods of enterprise forecasting mainly include:
(1) Qualitative prediction method
Qualitative prediction method, also known as intuitive judgment method, is often used in predicting the development prospect of twin strollers. Qualitative forecasting mainly relies on the information, experience and comprehensive judgment ability of forecasters to predict the future situation and development trend of the market. This kind of prediction method is simple and easy to use, especially for those problems where it is difficult to obtain comprehensive data for statistical analysis. Therefore, qualitative prediction method has been widely used in predicting the development prospect of twin strollers. Qualitative forecasting methods include: expert meeting method, Delphi method, sales personnel opinion collection method, customer demand intention survey method.
(2) Quantitative prediction method
Quantitative forecasting is to use relatively complete historical data, mathematical models and measurement methods to predict the future market demand for twin strollers. Quantitative prediction is basically divided into two categories, one is the time series model, the other is the causal relationship model.
With the increasing competition in the twin stroller industry, mergers and acquisitions, integration and capital operation among large enterprises are becoming more and more frequent. Excellent twin stroller enterprises at home and abroad pay more and more attention to the analysis and research of the twin stroller market, especially the in-depth study of the current twin stroller market environment and customer demand trend, in order to occupy the market in advance and obtain the first-mover advantage. Because of this, a large number of excellent twin stroller brands quickly rise, gradually become the industry leader. Industry research network uses a variety of information processing technology, the twin stroller industry market mass data collection, sorting, processing, analysis, to provide customers with a package of information solutions and consulting services, to minimize the twin stroller customers investment risk and operating costs, seize investment opportunities, improve the competitiveness of enterprises.
Post time: Mar-10-2023